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Secretary Clinton takes a selfie with a supporter after the Nevada win. Photo source: Clinton Campaign.
The race for president is starting to take shape. This is Trahant Reports.
No matter which candidate you favor, it’s pretty clear that Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton now have the inside lanes to their party’s nomination. The campaign is now all about delegates and both Trump and Clinton are starting to wrack up sizable leads. Of course they could still be beat, but for that to happen, there has to be a sudden and dramatic shift in the primary elections ahead.
That task is even harder because both parties have rules that favor the candidates who are in the lead right now.
The Republicans have a number of states that are winner take all. Trump’s challengers hope they can win in those states and quickly catch up. But more likely the best shot for his challengers — Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and nominally, at least, Ben Carson — is for Trump to fall short of winning an outright nomination. Then, they could make their case at the Republican Convention and win their bid after a floor vote. If that happens, wow, that will be wild.
Democrats don’t have the same system. Delegates are awarded proportionally. This is where Clinton is building her lead. So even if she loses a state or two, there just won’t be enough delegates for Sanders to pass her. She’s roughly in the same position as Barack Obama was eight years ago.
Clinton looks like a sure bet to win the South Carolina primary and then do well in Southern-dominated Super Tuesday primaries on March 1. On that day eleven states will vote and some 880 delegates will be awarded.
So yes, it’s possible that Trump or Clinton will not win their party’s nomination. But after March 1 the math does not favor any of the challengers.
So where does Indian Country stand on this election? So far the story is mixed. In Iowa, Bernie Sanders won the only reservation community by a whopping margin. But in Nevada it appears several reservation communities were split. Sanders won the Duck Valley Reservation, but lost on the delegate-rich Walker River Paiute Reservation. As we go forward I’ll try to add up all the numbers and create a tally of some sorts. We’ll call it the Native Primary.
It’s worth saying that elections are as much about policy as they are candidates. So watch both sides and ask: Who are the candidates running for Congress and how are they aligning with the presidential candidates? This is important because winning the White House is not enough to effect policy. There also has to be a legislative program. And any outsider — even Donald Trump — will have trouble without a regular coalition. Remember he’s running as a Republican, but he’s often running against the establishment Republicans. That’s a tough line to walk if you’re a Republican in Congress running for another term.
Like I said: This election is just starting to take shape. And it’s not recognizable.
I am Mark Trahant reporting.
