Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Photo post on Facebook by Stevens County Democrats. Incumbent Republicans have a new challenge: Rejecting Trump (and making their base mad) or sticking with Trump (making it that more difficult to build a majority margin.)

Early in the election cycle I made a prediction: I said if Donald Trump was the Republican nominee, the House would be in play for the Democrats. The reaction (and more than once) was 30 seats? Not likely.

This is Trahant Reports.

Months later “not likely” is a word worth reconsidering. It’s now a possibility because Donald Trump’s war against Republicans has not only doomed his bid for the White House, but it’s increasing prospects that the Democrats will win the Senate and unlikely as it was, the House. There is some polling data to back up this idea (certainly good news for Native American candidates Denise Juneau, Joe Pakootas, and Chase Iron Eyes.)

A survey for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows a seven-point advantage for Democrats in a generic poll. This is a question asked every cycle, basically “would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?” Usually it’s close. It favors Democrats, slightly. (Remember more people vote for Democrats for Congress. Republicans win because of the district system.) Two years ago before the election the same question showed Republicans with a two-tenths of one percent lead. The final result: Democrats 49.2 percent; Republicans 48 percent.

But recent polls shows Democrats with a seven point advantage. That’s sweep territory. And the prospect of the House of Representatives shifting from Paul Ryan’s leadership to Nancy Pelosi.

That survey says when a candidate is running against a Republican “who continues to endorse Donald Trump” the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage. Voters, especially mainstream voters, don’t like that approach. (The two Native American Republican candidates for Congress, Representatives Tom Cole and Markwayne Mullin from Oklahoma continue to back Trump as the party’s nominee.)

But here’s the thing. The Trump campaign has created an impossible dilemma for Republican candidates because he’s now attacking Republicans and forcing them to stand with him or against him.

That leaves Republicans with three choices. Hide. Denounce Trump. Or continue supporting Trump as a flawed candidate.

Joe Pakootas, a former chairman of the Colville Tribe, has been relentless about what Trumps said about women.“First of all, we need to stop normalizing rape culture. This means not tolerating any talk that encourages sexual assault. We need to make sure the burden is on the perpetrator, not the victim.”

Who else is in this camp? Rep. Kevin Cramer in North Dakota, who is being challenged by Chase Iron Eyes, and, in Montana, Rep. Ryan Zinke, who is running against Denise Juneau.

These are significant numbers. In a recent  Montana poll Denise Juneau trailed Zinke by three points and another by 11 points. So a 12-point swing, well, would change everything. Same story in Washington state. And, if Iron Eyes can get his message out, even in North Dakota.

I am Mark Trahant reporting.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download | Embed

Will young people vote in 2016? And, more important, how about the younger generation of American Indians and Alaska Natives?

This is Trahant Reports.

Younger voters are perplexing. They are, or they should be, the largest group voters, some 75 million people. Except there is an “except.” Young voters are less likely to vote.

The data backs up the idea that young people were excited by Barack Obama’s first presidential campaign. He changed the conversation. But then the hard slog of politics, the fights with Congress, the slow pace of change, and so many compromises by Obama turned off younger voters. That’s a problem that goes beyond any single candidate.

Hillary Clinton has been trying to figure out younger voters. And that’s not so easy. This is especialy true in Indian Country.. It’s reflected on Facebook where younger American Indian and Alaska Native voters equate Clinton with the establishment and do not understand why Bernie Sanders is no longer an option.

There are even some younger Native Americans who see Donald Trump as an agent of change and worth the risk (all the while proclaiming support for Standing Rock or calling for more federal action on climate change.) That’s where the Standing Rock story comes into play.

Clinton has been silent about Standing Rock and the Dakota Access Pipeline dispute. The narrative from the camps is that she doesn’t care. I suspect the real issue is that her staff sees this as just another pipeline dispute similar to Keystone XL. She was not eager to weigh in on that issue either. They don’t see this as unique moment in history when all of North America’s indigenous people are speaking with one voice.

The Clinton generation, and that includes the Obama administration, cling to the idea that we can continue to drill and transport oil the same way we have been doing it for decades. They say climate change is real, but back away from the hard decisions required to limit consumption of fossil fuels.

But I think young voters would understand a call to sacrifice. A Harvard study last year found that three-out-of-four see climate change as a real threat and one caused by humans.

To my way of thinking: The single best thing Clinton could do to connect with younger voters would be to visit the camps at Standing Rock, learn from what’s going on there, and take a stand.

The evidence for why such an approach would work with younger voters is found across social media. When there is a report of an event, a prayer, or direct action, it spreads via social media by the hundreds of thousands. Now imagine those social media expressions as votes.

I am Mark Trahant reporting.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download | Embed

Word with a Champ offers daily coverage of the 4th Annual All Nations Indian Relay Championships, featuring Native Americans and First Nations of Canada. The All Nations Indian Relay Championships was held at the historic MetraPark Grandstands in Billings, Montana on Sept. 22-25, 2016.

America’s oldest known competition, Indian Relay is exploding onto the scene as the world’s newest and most exciting extreme sport! A combination of the World Series and Super Bowl for Indian Horse Relay, the 2016 All Nations Indian Relay Championships is the largest gathering to ever witness Indian Horse Relay,  with the best inter-tribal competition ever assembled.

Day 1 – September 22, 2016 – Calvin Ghostbear

Day 2 – September 23, 2016 – Gary Fellers

Day 3 – September 24, 2016 – Kennard Real Bird

Day 4 – September 25, 2016 – Crow Nations, Awasapsii Express winning jockey Chris Carlson

Podcast: Play in new window | Download | Embed

On Friday I tweeted: “What an extraordinary day, the federal government has a pulse.” The United States finally weighed in on what many of us believe is the most important issue in the country right now: The question of how this nation will address climate change.

This is Trahant Reports.

Let me back up. The Federal Government didn’t exactly answer that question, but it raised new ones in the Standing Rock dispute in North Dakota. The Standing Rock Tribe filed suit against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers because the agency did not adequately consult with the tribe as required law. But last week a federal court ruled the Tribe had not demonstrated that an injunction was warranted to stop construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline.

Several minutes after the court ruling three federal agencies issued their own statement and required a review of the pipeline under the Missouri River and asked for a voluntary halt to construction near the reservation.

So what does this all mean?  Well, there is a review of the pipeline crossing water — and that should lead to a larger question, how important are water resources in the era of climate change?

I suspect the oil and pipeline industry already knows the answer. A news release from the Midwest Alliance for Infrastructure Now was gloomy in its assessment. “Should the Administration ultimately stop this construction,  it would set a horrific precedent.” The industry says.  And, quoting here, “We hope and trust that the government will base its final decision on sound science and engineering, not political winds or pressure.”

That is exactly where the country ought to start the conversation, using sound science.

The federal government’s best science comes from the U.S. Global Research Program. In its most recent report, it says “climate change does not occur in isolation. Rather, it is superimposed on other stresses, which combine to create new challenges.”

The Dakota Access Pipeline is such a challenge. The industry’s own promotions say this pipeline will move oil to markets faster; eventually moving 570,000 barrels a day. Instead of reducing consumption, it makes it easier and cheaper for Americans to have more.

Yet at the same time the United States has promised the rest of the world that we will slow down our use of fossil fuels. That will not happen with more, cheaper oil.

The Federal Government’s best science says we need to protect water as the most important resource on the planet. In other words: Water is life. And that’s not politics. It’s science.

I am Mark Trahant reporting.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download | Embed

There is a disconnect between the perception of the dispute at Standing Rock and the reality of the moment. It starts a few miles south of Mandan, North Dakota.  

This is Trahant Reports.

A cement barricade and a handful of police divert traffic, so that people have to take  a slightly slower route to camps near the Missouri River. Not that it stops anyone. It’s silly. And more than anything else it displays a deep sense of ignorance.

It’s that ignorance that is systemic. There is a profound regional misunderstanding about so many things. And it’s exactly why, in an election year, every politician running for office (or even those in office) ought to take a few hours, drive around the barricade and take time to listen.

What will they see and hear?

The first thing is a remarkable organization. It’s very much like any powwow weekend in America — except more so. There are checkpoints (no alcohol, no drugs, no weapons) and a food operation that is extraordinarily complex, managing the increasing shipment of donations to the menu of the day. Everyone is fed. And the trash is about as organized as you can get: Cans for cigarette butts, recycling bins, and garbage bags. When people forget to separate their plastic – we are dealing with humans after all – there are regular reminders and more people to help.

Politicians would hear speeches, songs, and prayers, one after another. People standing, listening, laughing, nodding, and being inspired. They’d also see many symbols of patriotism: From flags to recurring honors for veterans.

But the most important lesson for any politician who drops by would be this: A clear message of resolve. There is a serious purpose for the people here, one that’s not going to go away without a successful resolution. There are so many avenues for that to happen: A favorable court ruling based on the Treaty or other actions, or more important, the court of public opinion.

So far nearly all of the North Dakota politicians who have been on site are from Indian Country.

Chase Iron Eyes, Ruth Buffalo, Henry Red Cloud and Marlo Hunte-Beaubrun.

The idea that politicians should visit now is especially important. There was a violent clash over Labor Day weekend between private security for the pipeline and the people from the camp. The potential of a misunderstanding is dangerous.

Federal, state, and local politicians could learn a lot by visiting. Perhaps they have not been able to get past their own silly roadblock.

I am Mark Trahant reporting.

Trahant Reports is brought to you by Kauffman & Associates, Inc., a Native American owned, woman-owned small business that has delivered innovative solutions for government and commercial clients since 1990. KAI’s expertise spans diverse specialty areas, including public health, education, and economic development.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download | Embed

My Facebook feed is rolling from new feeds from those headed to North Dakota to join those protecting drinking water for the people of Standing Rock and Cheyenne River.  Other folks are fundraising using a variety of social media tools. And, still more people are shipping food and supplies to the hundreds camped near the site.

That is the essence of political organizing.

This is Trahant Reports.

There is a problem, seemingly intractable, because the Dakota Access Project has opted for a route that crosses the Missouri River in a location that threatens the drinking water for the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe (and eventually the Cheyenne River Tribe).

So the tribes and supporters are organizing on multiple fronts. Litigation, set to begin August 24th, will challenge the role of federal regulators. And in the court of public opinion, hundreds of people are bringing the dispute into the new living room of America (that’s Facebook) where the story is often trending for all to see.

The magnitude of the organization is impressive. All it takes is a phone call, a Facebook post, or a picture on Instagram, and there is somebody ready to act. It’s the exact sort of passion that wins elections.

What’s interesting about this moment in time is that so many Native American candidates are on the ballot in North Dakota and South Dakota. The same organizational tools that bring food must also be configured to win an election.

Imagine Chase Iron Eyes in Congress who is selling t-shirts to fund his campaign.

Or specifically on this issue: Marlo Hunte-Beaubrun, Standing Rock Sioux, is running for North Dakota’s Public Service Commission and Henry Red Cloud, Oglala Lakota, is a candidate for South Dakota’s Public Utilities Commission. These are the state regulatory bodies that determine approval process for pipeline companies. One vote in each state might not be enough to change the outcome, but even a single voice on those commissions could raise tribal concerns every time the issue comes up.

The North Dakota Public Service Commission says the decision has already been made. Perhaps. The strategy for the Dakota Access Pipeline has been all about getting a quick approval. But if the protests and litigation slow that down, that might cause the company to rethink its route. Especially if they are looking at delays measured in years not months.

Back to politics: How many votes are needed to elect Hunte-Beaubrun? She would need to find 70,000 more votes than the last Democrat who ran for that office. And Red Cloud would need about 100,000 more votes.

Tall orders? Sure. But it’s no different than organizing food, transportation, and lodging for hundreds of last-minute guests.

I am Mark Trahant reporting.

***

Trahant Reports is brought to you by Kauffman & Associates, Inc., a Native American owned, woman-owned small business that has delivered innovative  .solutions for government and commercial clients since 1990. KAI’s expertise spans diverse specialty areas, including public health, education, and economic development