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The Electoral College from 2012 shows a “blue” Nevada. That state shows the new demographics of America where white voters are shrinking while numbers of American Indians, Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are growing. (Graphic from National Archives.)
It’s easy to get confused by this year’s campaign for president. This is Trahant Reports.
So if you get information from watching television or from Internet rumblings, you might think Republicans are driving toward a massive victory.
And why not?
Donald Trump packs thousands of people into every one of his rallies and the television ratings for G.O.P. debates are ginormous.
The problem with that narrative is that it misses the demographic shift that’s been occurring in America.
Any Republican candidate for president starts off in a deep hole.
Why? When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 the population of the United States was 80 percent white. Today it’s about 63 percent white.
One demographic profile of voters by The National Journal shows how dramatically the country changed since Reagan’s landslide. He won with the support 56 percent of white voters in 1980. But in 2012 Mitt Romney earned 59 percent of white voters and still lost by 4 percentage points.
The country’s diversity trend is just beginning. The U.S. Census reports that American Indians and Alaska Natives grew at 1.4 percent since 2013, compared to 0.5 percent for whites.
Even more diverse than millennials are those younger than 5 years old. In 2014, this group became majority-minority for the first time and in 13 years the majority of new voters will be people of color, in twenty-five years a majority of all voters.
So here’s the deal: ignore every poll you see that compares one Republican versus one Democrat. In our system, you have to think instead: Which states?
And it’s in these state contests where the American Indians and Alaska Native voters are becoming more important, especially as part of a coalition.
Nevada is a good place to start examining these trends. In 2012, Nevada voters were about 65 percent white. Next year’s voters are projected to drop to about 60 percent.It’s possible to build a winning coalition made up of some white voters (a third or so) plus significant majorities from Latino, African American, Asian American and Native Americans.
Other states where such coalitions are possible: Alaska, Arizona, Wisconsin, and, eventually, Oklahoma.
What’s striking about this election so far is that the Republican candidates are not even trying to build a coalition with minority voters.
As we enter 2016, yes, it’s going to be a crazy year with all sorts of scenarios possible ranging from fights at the conventions to third-party runs. Sure, it’s even possible, that one of the Republican candidates will whip up magic and unite a coalition of voters. But that would take words designed to reach consensus with the new majority of voters. One of the candidates will have to recognize that the road to the White House is red, brown, black and young.
I am Mark Trahant reporting.
